See how long your retirement savings will last — with inflation-adjusted withdrawals, Social Security, and pessimistic / base / optimistic scenarios.
Updated May 2026 · Reviewed against current market data
Project a retirement portfolio under drawdown across three return scenarios. Models inflation-adjusted spending, optional Social Security offset, the 4% safe-withdrawal benchmark, and shows nominal balance vs real purchasing power side by side.
This calculator is a planning tool, not financial advice. Results are projections based on the assumptions below — actual market returns vary. See the Methodology page for full editorial standards and data sources.
A safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of your starting portfolio you can draw in year one — and inflation-adjust thereafter — without running out of money over a typical 30-year retirement. The classic Trinity Study answer is 4%, although recent research suggests 3.3–3.7% is safer for early retirees planning a 50+ year horizon (Pfau, 2011; Kitces, 2012).
The 4% rule (Bengen, 1994 + Trinity Study, 1998) found that retirees who withdrew 4% of a balanced stock/bond portfolio in year one, then increased that dollar amount with inflation each year, almost never ran out of money in 30-year historical windows. It implies you need 25× your annual expenses. Bengen tested a 50/50 large-cap stocks / intermediate-term US Treasuries mix; the Trinity Study tested S&P 500 stocks with long-term corporate bonds at five different stock/bond allocations. The popular “60/40” shorthand is a later simplification, not a portfolio used in either foundational paper.
Sequence-of-returns risk is the danger of a market crash in the first 5–10 years of retirement. Even if average returns are healthy, a bad start (selling assets in a down market) can permanently impair the portfolio. The pessimistic scenario in this tool roughly captures that downside.
At 3% inflation, $48,000 today buys only $26,500 of stuff in 20 years. That's why we grow your annual withdrawal with inflation and show real (today's-dollar) balance separately — the nominal line is the brokerage statement, the real line is your purchasing power.
Returns aren't a smooth average. Pessimistic (return − 2pp), base, and optimistic (+2pp) gives you a 'cone of outcomes'. If the portfolio lasts in the pessimistic case, you're truly safe. If it only lasts in the optimistic case, you're depending on luck.
No. Treat your annual-withdrawal input as the after-tax amount you actually need to spend. If you're drawing from pre-tax accounts (Traditional 401(k)/IRA), gross up by your effective tax rate.
All FIRE calculations on this site are grounded in peer-reviewed academic research and long-run historical data. See the Methodology page for full editorial standards.
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